UTM - 50% of Network Security Market?

I was reading a Fortinet press release today about IDC naming them the market leader in the UTM market.  No surprise there.  But I did read a few things that left me wondering.  One is what gives with IDC?  Gartner and most of the other larger analysts never give quotes that are specific to any particular vendor. That did not stop Charles Kolodgy (who I know and is a heck of a nice guy) from giving Fortinet a glowing quote.  Not sure what that is about.  But the bigger thing for me was that UTM as IDC defines it (network firewall, NIDS/NIPS and gateway AV), will account for 50% of the overall network security market by 2011. 

Take a moment and get your head around that.  Will there be no stand alone security apps on appliances anymore?  What about NAC, is that part of the other 50%?  One out of every two dollars spent on network security going to UTM? I am just not sure I buy into that one.  I agree that it is a market growing fast, but I also think it is a market still undergoing change and convergence.  I think the UTM market as it will exist in 2011 will have more functionality that just these three security apps that IDC counts right now. 

Changing open source licensing will effect this market as well.  Too many of the leading UTM vendors are loading up open source apps on an appliance.  As these open source licensed security apps move to dual-license models, it is going to be harder to for the UTM vendors to make it fit their business models. I think this could be a significant factor in who will lead the UTM market in 2011.  Whether it is 50% of the network security market or not.