I have read a lot this weekend from people whose business acumen I respect. Brad Feld (here and here), Fred Wilson and Will Herman all published blog or twitter posts dealing with our present economic condition. One of the great things about blogging though is if I don’t agree with them or want to express my views on the subject, I have my own bully pulpit. I may not have the 100K plus followers that Brad or Fred do, but that is OK, I can put my thoughts out there for the world to see. So here goes:
First of all no one wanted the federal government to bail out any companies. The government certainly didn’t want to. It truly is an investor of last resort. But the alternatives are just worse. You will not find many takers willing to raise their hand and say, “yes lets burden our children with the debts of our mistakes”, never the less, if we did nothing we may not leave them anything at all. So I don’t buy into the - we all want to be socialist Swedes and that this is some how part of Brarak Obama’s plot. Plain and simple we were in such a rotten place that we had no choice but for the government to step in to avoid such widespread upheaval that it could rock our foundations to its core.
Second, somewhere along the line it has been repeated enough times so that everyone takes as gospel that government can never do anything as well as private markets can. It started with Ayn Rand for Brad and the gang, but for most of America it is textbook Ronald Regan. But the fact is that for big projects like going to the moon, building an atomic bomb, winning a war – funding basic R&D, the government actually does a pretty damn good job. It is not optimum, but the government is in a much better position to weather the storm and see us through to the other side in our current mess.
Next, there really is a case of being a hammer and everything looks like nails here. Fred calls Citibank to task for taking out an ad in the NY Times. He says “old school companies sticking to old school approaches that don’t work anymore”. Yes, if you invest in a lot of internet companies and closely watch the ad business on the net, you may discount the value of old fashioned print ads in the NY Times. But lets give the marketing and media departments at Citi and their ad agencies some credit here. We are not talking about a couple of start up mark-comm folks who know how to manipulate Google Ad Words. These are people who have been doing this for a living for a long time, have reams of data and no what they are doing. It wasn’t Citibank’s marketing that got them in this mess.
Brad jumps on this bandwagon calling it an idiot move, but cuts Citi some slack because they are doing some things he is aware of, but can’t speak about. I don’t know what these things are but knowing Brad, they involve RSS or at least the web as a communication medium. Again the hammer looks for nails. Guys, it may not be the NY Times of the 1970’s we are talking about, but there are still a few of us who read the Times, including the ads. In fact if you guys did not read the Times, you would not know about the ad. So in a way you prove the value of the ad in that it got your attention.
By taking public money we will have this scrutiny. Not a great thing, but not messed up either. That is the price to be paid for taking public money. But think about it, as private investors, don't you Brad and Fred look at where money is being spent. How did you feel about some of your investments buying Super Bowl ads a few years ago. I don’t remember you jumping up and down and calling them idiots while that was going down. Only with the harsh reality of the cold slap in the face of the dot com bubble bursting did many of the VCs of the era fess up to being taken up with “irrational exuberance”.
Brad then goes on to talk about “investment versus speculation”. Sure it is easy a VC who is investing in companies directly and sitting on their boards to be an investor in every sense of the word. But the speculation of investors in the market is not something that is new or particular to our recent troubles. In many ways it is what fuels the market. Most people don’t have the luxury of being a “qualified individual” or sitting on the board of a company. Most people can’t even afford the time and effort to go to a shareholders meeting. They do their research, make their best choice and go with it. There is more to speculators than the picture of the evil money changers who drove up the price of oil. Speculation is essential to the market. It may not work for Brad, but for others it is the best they can do.
Finally, my friend Will Herman and his twitter post scared me the most. Will is a big New England sports fan (Sox, Pats, Bruins and Celts), but I don’t hold that against him. Somewhere he just went off course in regard to sports because on most other things he is dead on. Will twittered about a NY Times article that talks about the new issue facing immigration. Many highly qualified immigrants are choosing to leave the US and pursue greater opportunity in their native companies. I know many of you might be happy about that, but Will is rightfully upset about it.
Our country has always been afraid about the next wave of immigrants taking the jobs of those who came before them. First it was the Irish, the Italians, the Jews, the Hispanic, the African-Americans, etc. But yet each immigrant group has wound up enriching our society and filling the pockets of those who came before them. We cannot afford at this critical time to be suffering a brain drain of people who have been educated here but are not helping us continue to build our base and add more jobs to the mix. We need this fresh blood, energy, innovation and intelligence.
It is a very telling statistic that these educated, intelligent people are picking up and leaving for greater opportunity elsewhere in the globe. When we can figure out who to reverse that, we will be back on track. In the meantime, I have not had the success that these guys have had in business. But that is the view from down here.